According to Marat Zembatov, Director, Center for Interdisciplinary Studies, Institute of State and Municipal Management, Higher School of Economics; Member, Russian-Omani Business Council, Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Expert, BRICS Business Council Group on Transport and Infrastructure; Ph.D. in Economics:
"As of March 11, 2026, the geography of passenger and cargo movement in the Middle East has collapsed. Initially, the discussion centered on canceled and delayed flights; by day twelve of the conflict, logistics had fully shifted to wartime operations. In other words, logistics simply vanished. The airspace over Iran and Iraq, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar was closed. The Strait of Hormuz had essentially come to a standstill. Initial reports of 150 to 250 bulk carriers and tankers stuck on both sides of the Strait— empty ones to the east, fully laden with oil or LNG to the west in the Persian Gulf— were supplanted last night by far grimmer accounts. Iran has announced the commencement of mining operations in the Strait of Hormuz. In parallel, reports indicated that Iran has stockpiled 3,000 to 6,000 naval mines. By dawn, the morning news was already counting the toll: 16 Iranian minelayers destroyed by the United States.
How does this affect Russia? Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviation) has extended its recommendation that Russian airlines suspend ticket sales to Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates through March 14. The agency has officially announced the extension of flight restrictions to all these countries. How does this affect the European Union? The European Aviation Safety Agency has kept in effect until March 11 its recommendations against operating flights at any altitude in the airspace of Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and the Jeddah area of Saudi Arabia. Against this backdrop, Qatar Airways is operating only select outbound flights to Europe (London, Frankfurt, etc.) and Asia (Delhi, Seoul, Istanbul). The UAE's situation is less critical, but even there, Emirates, Etihad, and Flydubai flights are primarily focused on evacuating stranded tourists, operating on a reduced schedule. Dubai Airport operates at roughly a quarter of its usual capacity.
Though some routes technically still exist, they no longer function as transit corridors. On March 6, Turkey extended flight cancellations to Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan through March 9, while suspending all operations to Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates for that day. This picture does not yet reveal the full extent of the crisis. But when not merely one national airline deviates from its normal schedule, but the entire system of regional routes—which typically stabilizes the region during periods of turbulence—is disrupted, the implications become apparent. None of them show positive signs yet. Optimists believe conditions will improve as the U.S. president's visit to China approaches. It is scheduled for April 1-3.
Yemen's airspace remains effectively closed. The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has issued a recommendation requiring all aircraft to avoid the airspace over Sana'a at all altitudes in the southwestern Arabian Peninsula.
The maritime logistics picture is grimmer than ever before. Iran announced this morning that it may block the Strait of Bab El-Mandeb. Even without that threat, the Strait of Hormuz—already tense—represents a complete blockage of sea routes, particularly damaging to oil and LNG markets. Traffic has plummeted 97 percent in the strait since fighting began on February 28. The elevated risks to maritime traffic in the Strait prompted insurers to suspend coverage effective March 5. Given that the Strait of Hormuz handles 20 percent of global oil and LNG trade daily, a blockade would fundamentally reshape the global energy market. With crude oil ranging between $90 and $115 per barrel, no expert can reliably assess the ultimate effect on industrial goods prices. But within a couple of months, expertise won't matter. Price tags will make it crystal clear – in the language we all speak: dollars and cents. Would Saudi Arabia's westward pipeline to the Red Sea or the UAE's link to Fujairah solve this? No, it wouldn't. Pumping volumes are nowhere near what ships moved daily before the war. And this backup route? It won't fix the LNG crunch.
So what do carriers do? They do what they have to. They're bailing out of the Bay. Maersk has officially slammed the door on Hormuz – until further notice. The company has also temporarily halted cargo operations to and from the UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and parts of Saudi Arabia – maintaining service only at Salalah, Jeddah, and King Abdullah Port. MSC has suspended all cargo bookings to the Middle East until further notice. Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM did the same – rerouting their entire fleets around Africa. Yes, routing around Africa costs more. But you stay clear of the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb – zones loaded with uninsured risks. Nobody can predict what price chaos the collapse of the global container network will unleash. Yet the World Container Index and Shanghai Containerized Freight Index remain flat – no spikes, no crashes. Business as usual.
Without Iran's North-South corridor, the India–Persian Gulf–Suez route to Europe has lost both its speed and reliability – it's back to square one. History shows this before: Suez was completely closed for 19 years (1956-1975). And importers and exporters adapted – routing everything around the Cape of Good Hope became routine. People tend to get comfortable with good things. Today it means higher fuel costs, soaring insurance, inflated container fees – basically back to pre-globalization logistics. This is already happening, according to www.marinetraffic.com. Shippers are opting for capital-intensive security, and efficiency is again pushed out of global trade's normal logic.
The overland routes of Eurasian logistics were hit less hard, but they're no longer stable either. According to Maersk, the infrastructure holds – roads, rails, warehouses all operational. But the reality is harsher: cross-border congestion bites hard, customs delays stack up, transit times swing wildly, costs keep shifting. Even the short runs – UAE–Iran, Caspian–Russia – have become unpredictable. The broader MTK North-South corridor has slipped out of reliable load forecasting. Nobody knows what's coming anymore. Some cargo is flowing, but there's no long-term forecast yet – and won't be soon.
When an entire region drops out of global cargo flows, the message is unmistakable. A stable, peaceful Middle East isn't optional. It's critical for Eurasia and the world. It's clear now. Crystal clear. Soon we'll be facing a refugee crisis from the Middle East. And it will be massive. Some countries have moved first. Turkey, for one, has already hardened its borders. Azerbaijan sealed its border for days. Then yesterday it announced it would reopen. These are interesting times we live in. God grant us the wisdom to find our way through this crisis. Logistics Insights will return soon with monitoring of the region's infrastructure.
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