According to Marat Zembatov, Director, Center for Interdisciplinary Studies, Institute of State and Municipal Management, Higher School of Economics; Member, Russian-Omani Business Council, Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Expert, BRICS Business Council Group on Transport and Infrastructure; Ph.D. in Economics:
“In our previous issue, we looked at some less obvious but absolutely critical global commodities—resources whose scarcity, driven by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, is poised to drive up prices and reshape global trade patterns. Today we continue that analysis, turning to how the Persian Gulf conflict threatens the viability of major transport and logistics infrastructure investments.
The Trans-Arabian Railway—officially the Railway Network of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) rightfully stands as the region’s first and foremost infrastructure investment project. Currently under active construction with a projected budget of $240–250 billion, the network requires an additional 2,100–2,200 km to be completed. The UAE already operates 1,200 km of track, designed to move 60 million tons annually by 2030, while Saudi Arabia has built over 5,500 km and has already transported 30+ million tons in 2025. Oman remains unconnected. Originally scheduled for completion in 2030, the fully integrated network is expected to handle over 95 million tons of cargo annually at full capacity. The cargo mix reflects the region's economic base: petrochemicals, sulfur, polymers, cement, construction materials, steel, general containerized goods, fertilizers, and food products. Currently, containerized cargo represents 15–25% of the total; this share could rise to 25–35% as the network matures, driven by growth in consumer goods, food, automotive components, and general merchandise. Key commodities include copper, aluminum, phosphate and potassium fertilizers, as well as hydrocarbons and petroleum products.
Under a near-term acute escalation scenario, the network could generate 6,000–12,000 million ton-kilometers of additional freight traffic annually, as cargo flows reroute to avoid conflict-affected areas.
The India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), is a newly designed international transport route announced in September 2023 that remains non-operational to date. Expert analysis suggests the corridor's Middle Eastern segment could handle a baseline throughput of 46 trains daily, equivalent to 1.5 million TEU annually, with potential to scale to 3 million TEU. The corridor delivers competitive advantage through approximately 40% transit time reduction vis-à-vis the Suez Canal maritime routing from India. The estimated annual trade benefit for Asia-Europe commerce stands at $5.4 billion in logistics savings alone. For India specifically, projections indicate potential incremental annual export growth of up to $21.85 billion.
IMEC's cargo portfolio is heavily inclined toward containerized goods: electronics, pharmaceuticals, machinery, auto components, fertilizers, food products, and diverse general cargo—with future growth in processed critical mineral supply chains. Containerization reaches 60–75% by weight at full maturity, but commands over 80% of shipment value. The corridor's critical mineral focus encompasses copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, graphite, aluminum, and rare-earth elements. However, IMEC faces significant exposure during acute escalation scenarios, making it the most vulnerable corridor among regional options. Conversely, under managed confrontation conditions, the corridor could effectively compete with the Suez Canal route, capturing 12,000–20,000 million ton-kilometers annually while delivering 30–40% transit time savings.
Iraq's "Path of Development" from the Port of Grand Fao to Turkey. Capitalized at $17 billion, the Iraqi project anchors its southern terminus at Al-Fau port and extends northward via rail to the Turkish border. Road freight operations are also planned alongside the railway to enable multimodal transport capacity. The project targets 3.5 million annual TEU of containerized throughput. As of April 1, 2025, overland transit became operational under the TIR framework, enabling efficient cross-border movement. The International Road Transport Union has validated Poland-to-UAE transit times at 10 days—a competitive metric that positions the corridor for goods requiring time-sensitive delivery.
The cargo portfolio reflects a mixed-mode strategy: containers, equipment, steel, petrochemicals, food, fertilizers, vehicles, and automotive components, with containerization potentially reaching 35–50% by weight. Critical commodity exposure centers on copper and aluminum supply chains, phosphate and potassium reserves, plus hydrocarbons and petrochemical products. The corridor's strategic advantage lies in its ability to compete with Suez-routed flows for time-sensitive mid-to-high-value goods via its overland Iraq-Turkey segment. However, under acute escalation scenarios, the corridor's critical vulnerability emerges: the southern maritime gateway. If Basra and Al-Fau operations face sustained strike threats and insurance premium escalation, the realistic transit growth projection contracts to 2–5 million tons annually and 3,000–7,000 million ton-kilometers, assuming a prolonged, low-intensity conflict trajectory.
The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), commonly referred to as the Middle Corridor, has garnered substantial institutional and financial support. World Bank projections indicate that upon full operationalization, cross-Caspian transit volumes could expand to 11 million metric tons by 2030, with containerized freight representing approximately 4 million metric tons of the total throughput. The European Commission announced a €10 billion mobilization package in January 2024 targeting Europe-Central Asia corridor connectivity, while the World Bank's February 2026 approval of an $846 million IBRD guarantee enabled the mobilization of $1.41 billion for railway infrastructure development on Kazakhstan's TITR segment.
Infrastructure improvements will reduce the raw materials share on the TITR from 60% to 53%. Container freight currently accounts for less than 10% of total mass throughput. By 2030, this figure is expected to grow 2-3-fold. Critical commodities transiting the corridor include copper, manganese, nickel, graphite, cobalt, rare-earth elements embedded in manufactured goods, fertilizers, and non-ferrous metals.
Under the acute escalation scenario, the Middle Corridor emerges as a primary beneficiary of redirected demand flows. The route operates independently of the Strait of Hormuz and avoids Iranian territory entirely. Working estimates project additional demand of 2-4 million tons and 8,000-18,000 million ton-kilometers annually over a 1–2-year timeframe. The European Union stands to gain most significantly, as the corridor simultaneously mitigates maritime chokepoint risk and reduces reliance on northern transit alternatives. In a managed confrontation scenario, the 11-million-ton target across the Caspian appears realistic. Annual corridor throughput could reach 25,000-35,000 million ton-kilometers.
The International North-South Corridor demonstrates greater exposure to Iranian infrastructure than competing routes, making it particularly vulnerable to Persian Gulf disruptions. The incomplete Rasht-Astara railway segment, spanning 162 kilometers, carries a current estimated cost of €1.6 billion. In February 2026, Tehran and Moscow announced progress toward the final phase of land rights acquisition needed to complete this critical link. The corridor handles diverse commodity flows: grain and fertilizers, metals and forest products, machinery and equipment, textiles, and general containerized cargo. Containerization rates remain moderate; while industrial shipments show potential for higher containerization, bulk commodities like grain, fertilizers, and raw materials constrain overall container share below IMEC projections. Strategic raw materials identified include copper, nickel, cobalt, graphite, phosphate rock, and potash.
On March 12, 2026, Dmitry Peskov stated that Iran cannot effectively develop the North-South Corridor under current conflict conditions. Nevertheless, despite military operations temporarily rendering the corridor inoperable as the region's most critical logistics bottleneck, the project retains substantial long-term strategic value. Under acute escalation scenarios, North-South Corridor throughput would decline sharply. In a managed confrontation scenario, the corridor would maintain limited functionality via Caspian routing. De-escalation would restore corridor viability, potentially returning cargo flows to tens of billions of ton-kilometers annually.
The Persian Gulf conflict has caught investors off guard, jeopardizing implementation of the region's most ambitious transport-logistics infrastructure megaprojects. Yet there remains reason for optimism: conflict resolution should clarify a fundamental principle—that the winners in tomorrow's corridor economy will be those actors capable of rapidly restoring and deploying their transport capacity to handle construction materials, energy products, and foodstuffs. As the regional economy recovers, demand for these commodity flows will sustain robust growth over an extended period.”
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