Portal 1520International publishes the first part
Introduction
The relationship between Russia and China is a strategic partnership. Each country reliably supplies the other with both raw materials and highly processed products. Trade turnover between the countries, which has reached $244.6 billion, is 2.3 times higher than it was in 2018. At the same time, the leadership of the states aims to increase not only trade, but also economic ties. It is obvious that the rapid growth of mutual trade should be ensured by the synchronous development of transport and logistics links.
In recent years, China has become Russia's most important trading partner, accounting for up to a third of the country's foreign trade. At the same time, the balance of trade remains positive for Russia. While remaining a significant export destination, China is a supplier of a wide range of consumer goods, as well as capital goods and components.
Despite the fact that Russia ranks only seventh among China's trading partners, it provides the Chinese economy with energy and key resources, including oil, gas, metals, chemical products, agriculture, seafood, etc. The scale of China's economy prioritizes not only access to essential resources, but also predictable, stable supply routes. Given the international political agenda, Russia acts as a reliable trading partner for China.
In recent years, bilateral trade between the countries has been characterized by a steady increase in trade volumes, but according to the results of the first half of 2025, there are signs of a slowdown associated with structural factors. Both Russian exports to China (against the backdrop of the situation on world markets) and imports from China are declining. The reduction in the latter is due to the general saturation of the Russian market due to the completion of the process of adaptation of the Russian economy to the foreign trade realities that arose after 2022. Thus, the worst hit by the decline were imports of Chinese cars and spare parts for them. At the same time, the import of industrial equipment is growing moderately.
The realization of the trade potential of bilateral relations is impossible without well-established transport logistics. The reorientation of Russian trade to East and South Asia has led to a similar restructuring of trade flows. The eastern gates to Russia – the ports and border crossings of the Far East, as well as transport corridors across the territory of the EAEU member states - are acquiring key importance. The Northern Sea Route remains an object of strategic interest for Russia and close attention for China. In general, the transport and logistics industry has managed to adapt to the new foreign trade realities.
The efforts of both the state and economic agents are now focused on the development of infrastructure, and the introduction of tools that help speed up the movement of goods. In addition to maritime logistics, continental supply routes, primarily by rail, are becoming increasingly important.
Key Indicators of Mutual Trade
By 2024, the volume of bilateral trade between Russia and China reached a record level: $244.6 billion. The growth rate of foreign trade turnover between the two countries in the period from 2018 to 2024 averaged about 15.7% per year. The dynamics of trade turnover demonstrated a steady deepening of economic ties.
During the pre-COVID period (2018–2019), annual growth was 3.8%, which corresponded to the general logic of the development of economic ties. In 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a 3.1% decrease in trade volumes, to $107.6 billion. Then over two years, from the beginning of 2022 to the beginning of 2024, trade turnover increased by 64%. This sharp increase in mutual trade in goods is associated with the accelerated reorientation of Russia's ties in the context of external restrictions and a turn to the East.
The results of 2024 demonstrated a gradual slowdown in the growth of trade between the two countries. Exports amounted to $129.1 billion (+ 0.47% compared to the previous year), and imports increased to $115.5 billion (+ 3.96%). The slowdown in growth on the Russian side is due to the end of the period of adaptation of the economy to new conditions and the subsequent reorientation of business to eastern (including Chinese) markets. On the Chinese side, it is partly due to internal reasons - a decrease in production activity and signs of the market overheating, which affects demand for Russian exports.
The beginning of 2025 was marked by a decline in the value of exports and imports. Trade turnover in the first quarter of 2025 amounted to $52.25 billion, which is 8.4% less than the same figure for 2024 ($57.04 billion). Exports to China decreased by 9.4% ($29.56 billion), and imports decreased by 7.0% ($22.69 billion).
Chart 1. Foreign Trade between Russia and China.
Source: Graph created by the authors based on ITC data.
China has been Russia's largest trading partner for over ten years, accounting for about a third of its foreign trade turnover. At the same time, Russia's share in China's total foreign trade is about 3%. Nevertheless, in 2024, Russia ranked 7th among China's largest trading partners - after Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and the United States.
It should be noted that Russia is one of the leaders among the BRICS countries in trade with China, ahead of Brazil and India. In 2024, it accounted for 26.9% of the BRICS countries' foreign trade turnover with China. In addition, Russia accounts for 76.1% of the EAEU countries' trade turnover with China. Thus, Russia's relatively modest share in China's foreign trade is due to the peculiarity of China's trade and economic ties with the United States, South Korea, and Japan: for which imports from China are largely part of their own companies' value chains. At the same time, against the backdrop of the largest developing countries and the CIS region, Russia's position in trade with China is characterized by its impressive volumes.
The structure of mutual trade remains stable overall. Russia primarily supplies China with energy resources, ores and metals, chemical industry products, and agriculture. Chinese exports consist of manufactured goods, including machinery, electrical equipment, automobiles, and components for them.
Among the leading Chinese exports to Russia in 2024 in value terms, we can highlight passenger cars of various power ratings, tractors and trucks, smartphones and laptops, as well as consumer goods and chemical products (tires).
Table 1. TOP 25 Goods Exported from China to Russia in 2024.
Source: Graph compiled by the authors based on ITC data.
Data for the first four months of 2025 show a slight decrease in mutual trade. Total trade turnover decreased year-on-year by 7.5% and amounted to $71.12 billion. Russian exports decreased by 9% (to $40.31 billion), and imports fell 5.3% (to $30.81 billion). In the structure of exports to China, the largest declines were recorded for oil, oil products and gas (-29%), fertilizers (-16%), food oils (-20%) and timber (-6%). At the same time, there was a significant increase in supplies of copper (+91%), ores (+59%) and aluminum (+50%). Imports from China decreased for automobiles and spare parts (-60%), but increased for industrial equipment (+9%), optical products (+14%), ferrous metals (+26%) and organic chemistry (+15%).
On the Chinese side, the key long-term factor afecting demand for Russian products is the state of the Chinese economy, since Russian exports are primarily raw materials or provide for the national economy of the PRC. The dynamics of China's GDP in recent years reflect a moderate slowdown as it transitions to a new development model. From a ‘world workshop’ based on an export-oriented model, China is moving to a model with a core focus on domestic demand. In addition, given the achieved development indicators, the further growth of the country's GDP will be increasingly determined by intensive rather than extensive factors.
Socioeconomic indicators, including population dynamics, should also be taken into account. Objective trends in the country's development have led to a stage of moderate decline in China's population. In 2023, a decrease of 2 million people was recorded for the first time. According to a UN forecast, the current population of 1.4 billion people has reached its peak and will continue to decline. From an economic point of view, this will mean a gradual increase in labor costs and, as a result, change the nature of the country's economy.
In this regard, Russian exports to China are likely to be relatively stable in the coming years due to the projected moderate growth of the Chinese economy. At the same time, great opportunities will open up in niches associated with demand for products aimed at the middle class in China. This includes, for example, Russian food products. At the same time, the value of Russia's exports to China remains subject to fluctuations in world prices for energy and other raw materials (oil, gas, coal, ores, metals). As a result, individual fluctuations are possible that do not change the nature of exports themselves.
Among Russia's non-energy exports to China, aluminum is worth noting, which from 2021 to 2024 demonstrated growth from $780 million to $3.54 billion. Some forecasts show a likely maintenance of export volumes to China amid the development of green energy, growth in the production of electric vehicles, and the high utilization of China's aluminum smelting capacities (about 95%).
It is also worth noting the growth in exports of non-ferrous metal ores and concentrates - from $500 million in 2021 to $1.84 billion in 2024, and frozen fish - from $1 billion to $1.3 billion. It is important to take into account more than China's interest in these goods - due to the need to diversify and ensure supply stability amid trade wars with the United States - but also the increased importance of the Chinese market for Russian manufacturers.
A certain reduction in the value of exports - often caused by changes in world prices - in the indicated years was demonstrated by such items as sawn timber (a drop from $3 billion to $2.6 billion) and refined copper (from $3.9 billion to $2.3 billion). Together, these goods form the non-energy basis of Russian exports.
Graph 2. Dynamics of the Value of Russian Exports to China for Five Key Commodity Items for 2021-2024 (Excluding Energy Resources), billion dollars.
Source: Compiled by the authors based on ITC data.
Demand for Chinese imports in Russia in recent years has been largely determined by the need to replace Western-made products: both in industry and in the consumer segment. The need for an accelerated trade turn to the East has become the driver of growth in imports of cars, auto parts, and various electrical appliances.
Along with the import of passenger cars from China, which grew from $1.5 billion in 2021 to $15.2 billion in 2024 (more than 10-fold), the import of tractors and trucks similarly increased - from 70 million to 2.7 billion dollars, trucks - from 400 million to 2.7 billion dollars, bulldozers and road equipment – from 900 million to 2.2 billion dollars. At the same time, the market saturation achieved by the beginning of 2025 was a consequence of the decline in import volumes from China in the first half of 2025. During the first five months of 2025, imports of cars and components fell from 8.8 billion to 4.2 billion dollars (-52% compared to 2024). As of March 2025, the Russian market was oversaturated with Chinese cars: about 500 thousand cars remained unsold. At the same time, in terms of heavy equipment, market saturation had most likely occurred by 2023.
As for the supply of telephones, computers, and electrical equipment, the value of imports for these items showed a slight increase or remained at approximately the same levels. Tire imports from 2021 to 2024 increased from $0.5 to $1.5 billion, but in January-February 2025, a decrease of 8.5% was recorded, which also indicates market saturation.
Graph 3. Dynamics of Russian Value Imports from China Affecting 10 Main Commodity Items for 2021–2024, billion dollars
Source: Graph compiled by the authors based on ITC data.
The rapid growth of Chinese car imports has caused certain concerns within Russia, especially among local manufacturers. As early as 2025, technical requirements for certain Chinese trucks were tightened by Rosstandart. It is obvious that after the market stabilizes in 2025, Chinese manufacturers that have taken the place of Western companies will be expected to open factories in Russia or increase the degree of localization of production - similar to the path that Western automakers took prior to 2022.
To be continued
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