Rail container transportation in the Eurasian space in the first half of 2025

The results of the first half of 2025 reflect the main trends affecting the Eurasian railway route

The cost of China — Europe — China rail transportation, according to ERAI data, averaged $3,250 per FEU during the first half of 2025, with a minimum of $3,239 per FEU and a maximum of $3,292 per FEU. Compared to volatile sea freight, rail freight rates did not show any sharp fluctuations. The ERAI Composite rate variation coefficient did not exceed 1% in the first half of 2025, while WCI Drewry exceeded 20%, demonstrating its instability. For comparison: during the first half of 2024, the ERAI Composite rate variation coefficient was 2.43%, and WCI Drewry was exactly 22%.

Dynamics of ERAI Composite and WCI Drewry indices

Source: ERAI

The pricing stability of the Eurasian railway route makes this type of transportation more predictable for those engaging in foreign economic activity. However, when considering the entire China — Europe route, it is clear that transportation rates are subject to more noticeable fluctuations.

The cost of through rail transportation China — Europe (SOC) since the beginning of 2025, according to ERAI data and surveys of freight forwarders, has witnessed a gradual decline. In January, the average rate ranged from $5,800 per FEU (Chengdu, Chongqing) to $7,300 per FEU (Shenzhen), with an already outlined decrease of 6-7% compared to December 2024. In February, the rate decreased by 4%, ranging from $5,550 per FEU (Chengdu) to $7,200 per FEU (Shenzhen), and by the end of the month — from $5,400 per FEU (Chengdu) to $6,300 per FEU (Guangzhou). In March, the downward trend continued (-3%), and the average rates ranged from $5,250 per FEU (Chengdu) to $6,100 per FEU (Shenzhen). Consequently, the first quarter of 2025 was characterized by a gradual decline in through rates for China-Europe rail freight. In April, rates from Chengdu dropped to $5,000 per FEU, while from Shenzhen they increased to $6,400 per FEU. In May, the rates stabilized and remained unchanged. In June, the rate remained the same on routes from Chengdu, while from Shenzhen they increased to $6,500 per FEU.


China-Europe Through Freight (SOC) Cost in the First Half of 2025, $ per FEU

Source: ERAI

The first half of 2025 was marked by a decline in transport volumes on the Eurasian railway route — 307.8 thousand TEU (-15.0% year-on-year). Over the past five years, this is the second worst indicator in absolute terms. At the same time, the average container load of trains was at the level of 117 TEU, and the average number of trains per day was nine. In total, taking into account the merger , 1,636 trains were sent in the first half of 2025, which is 22.9% less than the number for the same period in 2024.

The decrease in transportation volumes on the Eurasian railway route is, among other things, due to a drop in transit cargo flow from China to Europe. This was influenced by both increased competition from sea transport with lower rates and the desire of Chinese shippers to diversify supply routes.

In the transportation structure, the most noticeable decrease was in China-EU-China transit to 138.4 thousand TEU (-26.8% year-on-year). The decrease in the cost of sea freight, compared to the rates in rail traffic, led to the reorientation of some shippers «to the sea.»

In China-EU-China transit, it was westbound traffic that suffered the most. During the first half of 2025, 118.7 thousand TEU were transported from China to Europe via the Eurasian railway route, which is 27.2% less than last year. Moreover, in the first quarter of 2025, there was a decline of 25.1%, while in the second quarter, there was a 28.8% decline. In the opposite direction, 19.7 thousand TEU were transported (-24.6% year-on-year). The decline in the first quarter of 2025 was 32.0%, and in the second, there was a 16.5% decline.


  The main China-Russia routes in the first half of 2025


Source: authors' calculations