Rail freight volumes see seasonal uptick

BACK IN THE BLACK

The company credits several key drivers for this positive turnaround, notably the substantial increase in grain shipments (+8% in August, +4.6% in September, and a remarkable +22.6% in October) alongside rising fertilizer exports (+9.1% in September, +6.6% in October). Additional growth was seen in iron ore exports and coal shipments, both internationally and within domestic markets.

The Eastern corridor continues to outperform expectations, with data from the first ten months of 2025 showing a 6% year-on-year increase in total freight volume, reaching 135.7 million tons. Russian Railways reports that "Non-coal exports are showing particularly strong momentum, up 7.7% to 37.3 million tons. This includes fertilizer shipments nearly doubling, oil and petroleum products rising by 2.4%, iron ore increasing by 12.3%, and containerized freight growing by 11.5%."

MARKET ANALYSIS

The cumulative rail freight volume from January through October 2025 reached 927.1 million tons, marking a 6% year-on-year decline. According to company officials, several external headwinds have impacted key freight segments since the start of the year, with construction materials down 11.9%, ferrous metals falling 17.1%, and coal shipments experiencing a modest 1.7% reduction. Meanwhile, petroleum product transport decreased by 5.3%, largely attributable to scheduled maintenance operations across multiple refineries.

"We expect the full-year results to mirror this trend, with an overall decline of 6%," stated Irina Magnushevskaya, Deputy CEO of Russian Railways and Director of the Corporate Transport Service Center, during a recent media briefing. She detailed forecasts showing a 2.6% year-on-year decline for November and a steeper 4.8% drop for December. Looking ahead, Magnushevskaya confirmed that the company's 2026 targets remain in place, with a projected modest uptick of 0.6% over 2025 volumes.
"We're seeing downward trends in domestic shipments across virtually all cargo categories," the CTSC Director pointed out. Even the container segment, which had been a reliable bright spot with consistent growth, is now underperforming expectations. Russian Railways has revised its year-end projection from 8 million TEUs down to 7.5 million TEUs. This downward adjustment primarily stems from weakening import volumes, according to company officials.

Given these developments, Magnushevskaya suggested that the discounted tariff for container shipments in gondola cars might be eliminated entirely in 2026. This pricing incentive was originally introduced to encourage shippers to utilize alternative railcar types amid a shortage of container flat cars in the Far East—a situation exacerbated by significant trade imbalances between exports and imports. Industry publication Gudok (Issue 150/151, October 7, 2025) previously reported that this discount was already adjusted in late September. Effective October 1 through December 31, the tariff multiplier for containers transported in gondola cars from Far Eastern Railway stations and from both the Zabaykalsk terminal and Zabaykalsk export facility on the Trans-Baikal Railway was increased to 0.898, up from the previous 0.793 rate.

"Back in 2022, we faced an unforeseen spike in import volumes arriving at Far Eastern ports. To address container movement inland, we introduced the gondola car transport discount. Today, those extraordinary volume pressures no longer exist," Magnushevskaya explained. A definitive decision about maintaining or eliminating this pricing incentive would be made after evaluating performance data from the first quarter of 2026. "In all likelihood, we'll be phasing out this discount program," the CTSC Director concluded.

OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR

In this environment, the priority is freight acquisition across the network. Focus will be placed on enhancing existing services—routing optimization, scheduled deliveries, "Cargo Express," and other offerings. Efforts continue to expand multimodal options, particularly integrating water transport.

"Delivery predictability remains critical for customers," Magnushevskaya stated. She indicated that pricing adjustments would be implemented selectively, only when strategically justified.

FACING GREATER ACCOUNTABILITY

The CTSC Director highlighted progress regarding no-show shipping bookings. September saw 16 million tons of approved freight not presented for loading—an 18% reduction year-over-year. Still, this remains a critical issue. Significant resources that could serve actual shipments must be diverted to accommodate these no-show bookings. in Kuzbass alone, 1.1 million tons of goods were not presented for loading in September. CTSC calculates that 4.5 million tons could have moved eastward had resources not been committed to these no-show bookings. Magnushevskaya noted that the Eastern corridor shows markedly better discipline than southwestern and northwestern routes, where no-show bookings reach 25% of the total.

Railway officials expect that pending regulatory measures will help address the no-show booking problem. These include implementing a "ship or pay" mechanism and mandating that shippers coordinate transportation requests with rolling stock operators before submission. According to Magnushevskaya, major freight customers have already expressed support for the "ship or pay" framework. Russian Railways expects the State Duma to pass this legislation within the coming year.

Dmitry Koptev