China-Europe logistics market

Demand outlook

• China’s exports to the EU rose by 7,6% YoY in June, mainly driven by growing shipments of machinery and electrical equipment (+9,5%), which accounted for 60% of total exports in H1. Additional momentum came from high-tech products, including hybrid electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar panels (+12,7% across these categories), as well as semiconductors (+19%) [SCMP]. This trend is contributing to short-term demand for outbound shipments to Europe. Imports from Europe rose only marginally (+0,4% YoY), reflecting continued weakness in domestic demand in China, further pressured by declining competitiveness of European goods.

• Germany’s new export orders index reached its highest level since February 2022 [S&P Global], with rising demand from Asia — including China — across sectors such as machinery and auto parts. This may indicate an ongoing shift in Germany’s export model and create a foundation for future growth in outbound flows. Rising trade tensions with the U.S., including 30% tariffs set to take effect on August 1, are also reinforcing the strategic pivot of European businesses toward other markets [Financial Times]. For instance, BMW and Volkswagen are seen to be adjusting their strategies to regain market share in China, while Siemens and Bosch are expanding their footprint in the country, including via long-term infrastructure and sustainability projects.

• China—Europe—China rail container volumes fell 22% YoY in H1. In June, total volumes across all competing corridors dropped 37% YoY and 19% MoM. The Middle Corridor’s volumes remained stable, continuing the positive trend from May.

• Demand for Asia—Europe ocean freight remains steady. A capacity crunch in June and early July led to rollovers, pushing part of the volume to later sailings. Flexport estimates it will take another 2–3 weeks to clear the backlog.

  
  

Freight rate trends

• Over the past two weeks, rail freight rates on the China—Europe corridor have remained broadly stable. The Xi’an—Duisburg route is currently priced at approximately $6 100/FEU (SOC). For the Chongqing—Duisburg route, the rate is around $5 350/FEU (SOC). Container lease rates stand at ~$800-900, although some forwarders have considerably cheaper rates depending on the pick up location.

• The WCI Shanghai—Rotterdam benchmark declined by 2% WoW, settling at $3 384/FEU (19% MoM, −58% YoY) [Drewry].

  UPDATE: As of the evening of July 17, 2025, the latest WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam reading has declined by 1% WoW — down to $3 334/FEU.

  Rates appear to have stabilized following nearly six weeks of sustained growth. In the absence of new market drivers, the current level is likely to hold through late July and August. Amid limited booking volumes for August, carriers are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Maersk has slightly increased its late-July quotes to $3 090/FEU, while OOCL, ONE, HMM, and Evergreen are offering rates in the $3 400–3 500 range. COSCO and especially CMA CGM continue to quote significantly higher levels for August, with CMA CGM’s rate exceeding $4 700 [Linerlytica, GeekYum].

• The futures curve, based on contracts published by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, still points to softening in H2, though expectations have shifted upward. The latest pricing curve shows a gradual decline in Asia—Europe spot rates to around $2 700/FEU by end-August, up $300 over the past 2 weeks.

  
  

Other trends

• RTSB has launched two new regular services from Duisburg. On 7 July, the Chengdu—Europe Express began operations, carrying electronics, pharmaceuticals, food products, and German cars [AdriaPorts]. Earlier, on 21 June, the ASEAN Express was launched — a multimodal service routed via Chongqing, with subsequent delivery from Chinese ports to Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia [RAIL MARKET].

• On 30 June, a new multimodal route from Chengdu to Tangier (Morocco) was launched, passing through Hamburg and Barcelona [Medias24]. The project is led by Sichuan Silk Road Supply Chain Management and DPD (Deutscher Paketdienst), part of the French La Poste group. The route significantly reduces traditional maritime transit times, which is critical for many importers. Moroccan exporters also view the corridor as an opportunity to scale up shipments to China.

China-EAEU logistics market

Import and export trends

• In January—June 2025, Russian Railways (RZD) transported 3,78 million TEUs (laden and empty) across all types of services, a 2,9% YoY decrease [RZD] In June alone, the volume was 591.8 thousand TEUs, down 6,1% MoM. Loaded containers shipped across all services totaled 2,7 million TEUs (-5,1% YoY).

• Import rates for multimodal transport from China to Moscow have sharply declined over the past two weeks. The average cost via Far East ports is ~$4 200/FEU, down by ~$300, with some market offers as low as $3 600—$3 800/FEU (SOC). COC rates are even lower at $3 050—$3 500/FEU. Rates for rail services remained nearly unchanged at ~$3 700/FEU (COC).

• RZD plans to revise railway tariff structures, aligning tariffs for metallurgical raw materials and metal products (raw material transport to become more expensive, finished goods cheaper). Container transport tariffs may increase by 15% and empty run tariffs by 5% in 2026 and 2027 [Kommersant].

• According to Autostat, 90 116 new passenger cars were sold in Russia in June 2025 (-27,6% YoY). In the first half of 2025, 530 375 new cars were sold (-26,3% YoY). Market expectations suggest sales in July may slightly increase compared to June, reaching up to 100 000 units [Autostat]. Factors contributing to the growth include seasonality and ongoing dealer support programs. Up until this year, vehicle imports from China had been one of the key drivers of container market growth.

• Chinese shipping company NewNew Shipping Line (part of Torgmoll Group) transported over 20 thousand TEUs via the Northern Sea Route in the previous year, completing 13 direct voyages on the Shanghai-Arkhangelsk route. On July 8, 2025, shipping resumed (operating July—October), with 1 220 TEUs dispatched from Lianyungang port [Lynerlytica]. The next shipment is scheduled for July 17, 2025, with an estimated transit time of ~29 days.

• Barring major disruptions, Russia’s economic situation is expected to gradually improve. However, uncertainties such as ruble weakening, announced tariffs, and U.S. policies could introduce adjustments. Changes in tariffs may particularly impact export volumes.