Greater Eurasian Partnership: Theory and Practice

The research center International Trade and Integration (ITI), together with the Roscongress Foundation, prepared a study entitled “Greater Eurasian Partnership: Theory and Practice.” The 1520 International portal is publishes the third part.The digest was prepared specifically for the XXVIII St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF-2025).

A unique feature of the GEP is its conceptualization as an “integration of integrations”. Unlike traditional regional associations, the GEP is focused on coordinating and linking existing integration platforms, such as the EAEU, ASEAN, and the SCO.

In terms of its sectoral structure, the GEP as an initiative includes the following components:

·         a network of international trade and investment agreements;

·         a common transport space;

·         a single network of economic corridors and development zones;

·         a digital dimension;

·         an energy space;

·         a financial dimension.

Given the decentralized nature of the initiative, the most important components of the GEP today are trade, economic, transport and logistics ties.

Source: compiled by the authors

Trade and economic relations within the GEP

The GEP space is characterized by a high density of economic ties formed both within the specified groups and among them. The existing free trade agreements of the EAEU with Vietnam, Iran, and Serbia confirm the trend towards increasing inter-bloc interaction. In this regard, it seems appropriate to consider the role of the main integration blocks included in the GEP architecture in the world trade system.

The EAEU acts as one of the centers of economic development of Greater Eurasia, integrating into the macro-regional economic architecture and ensuring the coordinated participation of member states and external partners, primarily China. An important element is ensuring sustainable economic growth and supporting member countries in the context of global crises. The average GDP growth of the EAEU countries by the end of 2024 was 5.04%, exceeding the world average of 3.3%.

The total exports of the EAEU countries in 2024 amounted to approximately $494.6 billion, which is about 2% of world exports. Within the EAEU, the largest supplier of goods to the world market is Russia with exports of about $386 billion, followed by Kazakhstan (81.6 billion), Armenia (13 billion), Kyrgyzstan (7.3 billion) and Belarus (6.6 billion).

The place of the EAEU in world trade in 2024

Source: compiled by the authors based on ITC data

The foreign trade of the EAEU is developing in the context of a reorientation towards Asian markets, and the strengthening of regional ties and is accompanied by the creation of a common financial infrastructure and the transition to settlements in national currencies. As of 2025, the share of settlements in foreign trade transactions between the EAEU countries in national currencies reached a record 93%. The Russian ruble has taken a leading position in settlements within the EAEU, accounting for about 75% of all mutual settlements. The national currencies of other Union countries are also actively used - the Belarusian ruble, Kazakh tenge, Armenian dram and Kyrgyz som.

In addition to the internal market of the EAEU, there is an increase in the use of national currencies in settlements with key trading partners, such as China and India, where the share of settlements in national currencies reaches 90-95%.

A second organization which has been crucial to the integration of the GEP is ASEAN. ASEAN countries' exports in 2024 amounted to approximately $2.04 trillion, which represents 8.52% of world exports. Among ASEAN countries, the largest exporters are Singapore ($505 billion), Vietnam ($500 billion), Malaysia ($330 billion), Thailand ($299 billion), and Indonesia ($265 billion).

ASEAN's Place in World Trade in 2024

Source: compiled by the authors based on ITC data

In the global market, ASEAN is the most important supplier of such goods as electronic integrated circuits (about $257.5 billion). This segment is supported by a developed semiconductor industry in Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and the Philippines, where production capacities for packaging, testing and the assembly of microcircuits are concentrated.

These countries are actively integrated into global electronics supply chains, stimulated by the inflow of foreign direct investment and growing demand for high-tech products. Nevertheless, in the structure of ASEAN countries’ exports, a significant share is occupied by oil and oil products (about $97 billion), as well as telephones (about $95.7 billion). This trade structure reflects the specifics of industrial development in the region: more developed economies, such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, are gradually moving towards the production of goods with high added value, while less developed countries maintain their specialization in labor-intensive and raw materials industries. For example, Myanmar and Laos play a key role in meeting the region's energy needs, especially in supporting the industrial sector. Myanmar's mining industry, in particular, is an important source of copper and tin, strategically important resources for the dynamically developing electronics and renewable energy industries in Southeast Asia.

Dynamics of mutual trade between ASEAN and the EAEU

Source: Trade turnover data for 2020–2023 are presented based on open sources (2020; 2021; 2022; 2023); other data are mirrored and based on ITC information.

The structure of the EAEU's exports to ASEAN is highly concentrated in several commodity groups. Mineral fuels and oils account for about 73% of exports ($8.44 billion), fertilizers account for 10% ($1.19 billion), followed by ferrous metals (iron and steel) at 3.5% ($0.41 billion), and grain with 3.4% ($0.39 billion). Non-ferrous metallurgy products (aluminum, lead, zinc) and other goods account for about 10%.

The main supplier of goods from the EAEU to the ASEAN countries is Russia. In 2024, it accounted for $9.86 billion out of the total EAEU exports of $11.57 billion, or more than 89%. The same share (80-85%) was consistently observed in previous years. The other EAEU countries (Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan) play a much smaller role, supplying mainly raw materials and agricultural goods.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), in terms of its size - territory, population and economic potential - is recognized as a key platform for international cooperation in the Eurasian space, covering the strategic zone of the GEP initiative. Currently, the SCO unites ten member states, including Belarus, which was made a full member of the organization on July 4, 2024. Since the onset of the global financial crisis, there has been a steady increase in the share of the SCO states’ aggregate GDP in the global economy. Currently, the SCO member countries account for about 20% of the world's gross domestic product, while they represent approximately 40% of the world's population.

An important aspect is that the SCO is a platform for involving the GEP countries in joint projects — the organization works as a mechanism for implementing shared strategic interests. Within the SCO, Russia and China act as key drivers of integration in Central Asia.

The combined exports of the SCO countries in 2024 amounted to about 20% of world exports ($4.58 trillion). The main contribution to SCO exports is made by China — more than $3.5 trillion. China is followed by India and Russia, with $441.7 billion and $386 billion, respectively.

The SCO's Place in World Trade, 2024

Source: compiled by the authors based on ITC data

Major Trade Flows in the GEP by Product Categories and Country Groups

Source: compiled by the authors based on ITC data

China is the main supplier for the countries in the GEP. For example, the largest direction within the GEP is trade flows from China to the countries of Southeast Asia. The main importer in this link is Vietnam: in 2024, the volume of Chinese exports to Vietnam reached 161.85 billion USD, with high-tech product categories (integrated circuits, telephones, batteries, PC components) dominating. Similarly, significant volumes of Chinese supplies are sent to India - about $120.51 billion, mainly due to telephones, microcircuits, computers and auto parts, as well as to Malaysia ($101.15 billion) and Thailand ($85.98 billion).

An equally interesting trade flow is China's imports from Southeast Asian countries. The volume of exports from Vietnam to China in 2024 exceeded $98 billion, and the main items were also high-tech goods - telephones, components and computers. In addition, Vietnam maintains trade relations with India and other Southeast Asian countries, exporting electronics, radio equipment and agricultural products.

At the same time, Russia maintains an important role as an exporter of raw materials to GEP countries. Thus, exports from Russia to China in 2024 amounted to $129.07 billion, the main component of which is oil, gas, coal, metals and grain. In addition, Russia actively trades with India ($64.24 billion) and Turkey ($44.02 billion), supplying oil, coal, oil products, fertilizers, diamonds and grain.

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, in turn, are focused on exporting to China, mainly copper, oil, gas and agricultural products.

There are also significant trade flows from India to Singapore. India exports petroleum products, engines, ships and jewelry to Singapore, with total exports of around $15.85 billion. Among the smaller players in the GEP area, Turkey and Iran stand out as exporters. Turkey’s main export to most GEP countries is marble, while Iran’s key export is processed products, mainly polyethylene, as well as metal ores and agricultural products.

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, in turn, focus on exports to China, mainly copper, oil, gas and agricultural products.

Belarus, which recently became a full member of the SCO, supplies potash fertilizers, oil, lumber and meat to China, with total exports amounting to $1.81 billion.

Main trade flows in the GEP area by countries and goods

Source: compiled by the authors based on ITC data

Thus, trade in the GEP area is characterized by a clearly defined division of specializations: China is the main supplier of high-tech goods and components, Russia and the Central Asian countries are key exporters of raw materials and energy, and the countries of Southeast Asia act as important consumers and exporters of high-tech products.

Trade relations between key potential GEP countries

Source: compiled by the authors based on ITC data