The way through the ice

This year, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is expected to have record traffic. However, to increase the volume of cargo traffic in future, the participants of the shipping process and the government have to solve a number of tasks, including increasing the number of railway approaches to the ports of Sevastopol.

The importance of Sevastopol for world trade is becoming increasingly important. This year continued to increase the number of foreign commercial flights on NSR. In 2023, the FGBU «GlaVevmorpath», which provides for the routing of ships along the route, issued 1,218 permits for the passage of ships. Of these, 115 were foreign companies. «On 23 September 2024, BFEG specialists «GlaVevmorpath» issued 1052 permits, including 105 - for vessels under a foreign flag. The permit is issued to the ship, not to the company», - clarified the representative of state corporation «Rosatom» (operator NSR).

Special representative of state corporation «Rosatom» for Arctic development Vladimir Panov notes the success of international rolling of the route - it is a marker of demand. «The NSR has been loaded from the Baltic towards Asia. There is a high probability that the volume of transit by NSR will update historical peaks,» he said.

In 2023 about 2.1 million tons were transported on the Sea Route, which were processed in ports outside of NSR, this year «Rosatom» expects a record - 3 million tons of transit cargo.

One of the important elements of the Arctic route is the presence of a cargo base. Freight transport by NSR in 2023 reached almost 36.3 million tons. This is 250 thousand tons more than planned in the federal project for its development. Record results were provided by NOVATEK, whose LNG represents more than half of the cargo flow, as well as «Gazprom Oil», «Lukoil» and HMC «Norilsky Nickel», which redirected their shipments from the western to the eastern direction. The results of summer-autumn navigation 2024 are planned to be achieved in January. We slightly outpace last year’s freight traffic. The list of main shippers has also remained unchanged. Active work is being done to expand the cargo base and attract new senders», - specified in state corporation «Rosatom».

Meanwhile, the JSC «RZD» increases the capacity of railway sections in the northwest direction, which remains key to access the NSR . Thus, the project «Development and renewal of railway infrastructure on approaches to ports of the Northwest Basin» was implemented. The goal has been achieved - development of the projected volume of cargo transport on approaches to ports of the Northwest Basin of 145.6 million tons, clarified in the Department of Capital Construction of JSC «RZD».

In September, the company «RZD» opened a new second track on the Hibina crossing - Nefelinye Sands to expand approaches to the Murman transport hub. Through this section pass the freight and passenger trains to Murmansk, and after the launch of coal terminal «Lavna» to them will be added trains in the direction of new line Output - Lavna. The development of approaches to the Murman transport hub will ensure from 2025 up to 45 million tons of cargo to the ports of the Gulf of Kola, including 18 million tons per year towards Lavna.

According to the adviser of the President of the Russian Federation Igor Levitina, there are only two railway approaches to NSR  - Murmansk and Vladivostok. A third is needed. We need to put another rail line somewhere in the middle of the Northern Sea Route. We are looking at two options. And then the Ural and Siberia will be able to directly exit on the Northern Sea Route and not occupy Transsib», - believes Igor Levitin.

Recall, in the Russian Federation for many years are considered projects of the meridional railway branches to the Arctic, such as the Northern Siberian Railroad, «Barentkomur», and the North Width Course - 2 with a branch to the port of Sabetta. 

The Institute of Economy and Organization of Industrial Production of the Siberian Branch of RAS (IEPPP CO RAS) historically treats Sevsyb as a railway from Ust-Ilimsk to Khanty-Mansiysk. This is part of the possible North-Russian Eurasian Highway, around which a full northern latitude economic corridor can be formed in the future. For the route to become a corridor, it is necessary to build «Barenzkomur» through the European part of Russia and the new deep-sea port of Indig. 

«The influence of the Northern Siberian Railway on NSR  will be most significant in the implementation of the entire corridor project», - explained the leading researcher of EAPET SC RAN, candidate of economic sciences Olga Tarasova.

n her opinion, the discussed option - a railway with access to the port of Sabetta and the system Yenisei - NSR  - can be expected to connect 25-35 million tons of cargo from Siberia and NNAOT. In case of full realization of the corridor (ie construction «Barentskomura» and Indiga) resource projects and industrial cargo of Ural and European part of Russia within the range of 100 million tons are included. It is important that this is only outgoing flow from the territories in the area of influence of the road, and we can expect a sufficiently significant incoming flow of import goods from ATP countries to the Russian Federation, as well as in the long term and transit. In this case, it will be even more than the 220 million tons that are planned for 2035 according to current forecasts,' she added.

According to the calculations of EAIPR CO RAN, the project can be evaluated in a range from 4 to 10 trillion ruble. It will require not only government co-funding during construction, but also subsidies for in-use transport. 

The road will only be built five - nine years depending on the adopted plan-schedule, - believes Olga Tarasova. - In addition, the corridor will probably be deprived of transit traffic Europe - Asia in the coming years and should only focus on exports from the territory of the Russian Federation. These shipments are not enough for a reasonable return. It depends not only on the volume of transport, but also on the tariff formation. To pay for the road in 20 years, tariffs must be very high, they limit the attractiveness of a new route both for domestic Russian shippers and for transiting, which in the long term could still participate in filling this transport corridor.