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Afghanistan is getting closer

Russia joins the development of the Trans-Afghan highway feasibility study
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Russian authorities for the first time officially reported about Russia's participation in the development of the Trans-Afghan railroad project. This was announced by First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov during the 25th meeting of the intergovernmental commission on cooperation between Russia and Uzbekistan. Until recently, when asked whether Russia was involved in this work, industry representatives answered in the negative. 

The work is being carried out jointly with the Uzbek side, which is actively promoting this project and has even made the first steps towards its practical realization. In August this year, it was reported that Uzbekistan Temir Yollari completed the reconstruction of the railway line Hairaton - Naibabad - Mazar-e-Sharif in Afghanistan. 

It was repaired and restored 75 kilometers of tracks. The cost of the work amounted to about $6 million.

Afghanistan plays a key role in connecting Central and South Asia, Uzbekistan Temir Yollari said. Naibabad station is expected to become an important hub for cargo transportation from Russia, Kazakhstan, China and European countries via Afghanistan to Pakistan, India and other countries in the region.

The Trans-Afghan railroad project has been under discussion for more than five years, says Grigory Mikhailov, a Central Asian specialist and editor-in-chief of Logistan.info. During this time, many countries and organizations, including Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Pakistan and, of course, Uzbekistan, have shown interest in it.
 


In particular, the Russian side reported its readiness to help with the development of the feasibility study as early as December 2021. Tashkent is the main lobbyist of the project, as the construction of the road will allow the country to strengthen its transport capabilities, increase the volume of transit cargo traffic, as well as increase its political importance in the region.

At the same time, Grigory Mikhailov emphasizes that there is no concrete information about the project implementation. The latest statement on Russia's participation in the feasibility study of the project does not contain data on who from the Russian side is involved in the development, at what stage this work is at, and what are the deadlines for preparing the pre-feasibility study and feasibility study. 

In 2021 it was claimed that the construction of the road would require $4.6 - $4.9 billion of investments. Obviously, now this amount will increase by at least 30%. The road itself can be built in five to six years. 

Grigory Mikhailov believes that Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries will not be able to finance this project on their own in the coming years. This leaves the option of attracting external investors. Which of the major players will risk investing billions of dollars in the project, given that the Taliban, an organization with a controversial history and questionable legitimacy, is supposed to be the guarantor of its implementation? 
 
Nevertheless, in general, the construction of the road is useful for Russia in several ways, Grigory Mikhailov believes. First, Russian companies may be interested in participating in the design, construction and maintenance of the road itself. The personnel and competencies for this are available. 

Secondly, the construction of the Trans-Afghan road strengthens the transport connectivity of Central Asia and gives an impetus to the development of the region's economy, which is in Russia's interests. 

Thirdly, in case of successful implementation, Russia will get a railroad connection with Pakistan and, possibly, with India. If most of the route will follow the 1520 gauge - even better.

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